A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
